Hype Cycle for Digital 3D – Will 3D become mainstream by 2015?

We are now in March 2010 in the post-“Avatar” world. Above timeline is my prediction of a hype cycle for Digital 3D.

We are in the early part of the cycle:
– Avatar released in Dec 2009 has triggered a huge hype and interest in Digital 3D technology, though 3D itself has a long history.
– At this year’s January, 2010 Consumer Electronics Show (CES), lots of companies (technology, entertainment) interested in establishing a new market have announced new products – though there is no accepted standard.
– New standards like HDMI 1.4a announced in March 2010 are critical foundations for real 3D products.
– Early applications like entertainment (movies – Avatar, Alice in Wonderland, ESPN sports) show a lot of promise.
– Early products are too expensive like this $21,000 3D camera.

In the next stage of this hype cycle, real products need to be available. They need to become affordable. Then they will be really adopted by larger number of people.

I for one, hope to see applications like 3D Tourism become popular. I would really like to see Live or Realtime 3D Two-way communication – almost like Teleportation. 🙂

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